Addressing the proposal to increase the fuel excise duty by 0.50 lei during a recent appearance on B1.ro, Eugenia Gusilov analyzed the potential economic impact. At current prices of around 6.7 lei per liter, such a measure could push prices toward 7.2 lei per liter, assuming no other market hikes occur.

The Romanian Government appears to have learned from the crisis of the previous year, recognizing that the consumer affordability threshold sits around 8 lei per liter. This leaves some room for maneuver, particularly because the 2023 fuel excise duty was not indexed with consumer price inflation, a deliberate move to prevent worsening the economic situation.

This temporary exemption resulted in the application of minimum values provided by the EU Energy Taxation Directive for 2023: 1,777 lei per 1,000 liters for unleaded petrol, 2,083 lei per 1,000 liters for leaded petrol, and 1,632 lei per 1,000 liters for diesel. Consequently, current excise values are roughly 200 to 260 lei lower per 1,000 liters than they would have been following standard indexation, giving authorities fiscal space.

Any implementation is expected to occur in three gradual stages: 10 bani per liter in September 2023, 20 bani per liter in January 2024, and another 20 bani per liter in July 2024, demonstrating political caution given that 2024 is an election year.