Analyzing fuel prices and the international oil market on Digi24, Eugenia Gusilov explained that the pump price increases felt since the end of July are driven by two main developments.

First, the OPEC+ decision over the summer to reduce production by approximately 1 mb/d follows earlier cuts in April (1 mb/d) and November 2022 (2 mb/d). Fortunately, the 2 mb/d cut by OPEC+ was offset by non-OPEC production increases, particularly from the US, Brazil, and Guyana, which added 1.6 mb/d. By July, OPEC+ production stood at 50.7 mb/d, compared to 50.2 mb/d from non-OPEC producers. Crude oil inventories have declined, especially across the OECD area during the summer months. This reflects a clash of interests: OPEC+ targets an oil price range of $80-90/bbl, while non-OPEC countries, with America as their informal leader, target $70-80/bbl.

Second, regional tensions have escalated due to higher navigation risks in the Black Sea after Russia withdrew from the grain agreement, treating any commercial vessels heading toward Ukraine as potential military targets.