Media appearances

This morning's dialogue on Digi24 about electricity prices in Romania and the shortage of aviation fuel in Europe. Through demande response you can pay part of the demand, but you cannot solve the problem of investments not realized on time, whether we are talking about new production capacities, or whether we are talking about storage capacities (yes, this is when the management of the most profitable Romanian state company is more concerned with management bonuses than investments. See today's article from ZF, in which Hidroelectrica is criticized for "the modest investment activity of the company, but the generous remuneration of managers"). Europe suffers from structural vulnerability, that is, European refineries do not produce enough aviation fuel: 1.6 million barrels/day consumption (OECD Europe) vs 1.1 Mb/day production. The difference of 500,000 bbl/day is imported, mainly from the Middle East (2/3). Higher US imports of Type A jet fuel help during this period, but do not fully offset the shortfall. Therefore, part of the application will have to be destroyed. Both companies and travelers participate in this process. Companies – by optimizing flights, consolidating, giving up shorter routes (Lufthansa is the leader with 20,000 canceled flights), travelers – as a precaution, by not buying plane tickets this summer to avoid the unpleasant situation in which their flights are canceled and their vacation is compromised.

Yesterday, May 5, the day the Bolojan government fell, I participated in the "Energy Forward 2026" event organized by Adevărul, where we talked about the sensitive things that are bothering us related to the current energy crisis:
– the implications of the crisis in the Persian Gulf for the global oil and liquefied gas market. An aspect perhaps too little emphasized is that in this crisis, we have an OPEC founding state (Iran) that bombed the energy infrastructure of another OPEC founding state (…Saudi Arabia) as well as another OPEC colleague (the United Arab Emirates).
– if there are alternative export pipelines for crude oil, there is no alternative route for liquefied natural gas (LNG).
– why prices look the way they do,
– what measures have been taken so far (and why they are only tactical, not structural),
– how prepared is Europe for what is to come,
– the real exposure of European states, especially those that produce electricity from natural gas that may also experience electricity price increases,
– Black Sea gas and the direction in which it should go,
– electric cars and the future of mobility. All our discussion in the link below.

My intervention from May 1, about the gathering clouds. At this moment, for Romania, the greater danger comes from political instability, that is, the weakened front is the domestic one – we are not in optimal shape to deal with external crises.

Answering the questions of Radu Osipov, on TV Moldova1, yesterday, April 30, about:
– the exit of the United Arab Emirates (UAE) from OPEC and whether we have reasons for joy or concern. The decision will not help the markets very much because what is missing from the market is a much too large amount (13Mb/day), even if the Emirates would produce at the maximum now (4.8 Mb/day) instead of the quota that falls to them through OPEC (3.5 Mb/day).
– the exit from OPEC comes as a result of the accumulated tensions, especially with Saudi Arabia, the leader of the cartel. Establishing and respecting the quotas within the OPEC+ alliance is done at the expense of the sister states (Arab, Muslim). When you have to coordinate with non-OPEC countries (the OPEC+ alliance established in 2016) on the production side, practically OPEC makes room for barrels from Russia or Kazakhstan by restricting production in OPEC countries which thus sacrifice part of the production (not realizing income) in the name of "market stability".
– yes, by leaving the UAE, OPEC loses its flexibility, because only Saudi Arabia and the UAE have excess production capacity ("swing supply") – that is, the ability to increase production when needed. Russia does not have this capacity, having a rigid oil production profile.
– Why don't we feel the shock so strongly yet? Because the shock was amortized in March, when the US allowed India to buy Russian oil (from which India had just moved away, also under American pressure). Because the IEA decided to release 400 million barrels from the strategic stocks. Both measures work as an anesthetic and shock absorber. The exit of the Emirates from OPEC weakens the organization, but this is not necessarily a bad thing for consumers, because cartels have NEVER been good for consumers.

My discussion with Gabriela Mihai from April 30, at B1.ro, about the new wave of price increases at the pump. The cheapening in mid-April had more to do with the hopes of the 2-week truce, which should have paved the way for the permanent unblocking of the straits, which did not happen. The destruction of hopes means that prices at international quotations will start to reflect more and more this reality and not our wishful thinking, so prices will go up – something that is already happening.

This morning, at Euronews Romania, I commented on:
– the lack of diesel in some gas stations in the country, a situation that I see rather as a local and temporary anomaly.
– the announcement that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will leave OPEC from May 1, 2026. OPEC membership has acted more like a straitjacket lately. The production limitation policy was against the emirates: average production of 3 Mb/day in 2024, 3.5 Mb/day (the OPEC quota for them, by May 2026) in the context where they can produce 4.8 Mb/day and have invested to increase the production capacity to 5 Mb/day until 2027. The Emirates want not to be tied hand and foot, they will release from the quota OPEC, in order to produce as much as possible, especially now that tourism revenues may decrease. For consumers, this will not necessarily translate into lower prices. In general, cartels are not good for consumers, so the weakening of OPEC by the loss of the UAE is not necessarily bad news.

My discussion yesterday, at Euronews Romania, in which I talked about:
– the temporary lack of fuel in the chain of gas stations with the lowest price in Romania (Petrom)
– the paradoxical situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which is both closed and open at the same time ("Schrödinger Strait")
– the fact that the (unprecedented) decision to remove 400 million barrels from the strategic stocks and the measures taken by governments to moderate the price are only a ANESTHETIC, not even the treatment. The return to normal can only be given by the restoration of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Until this happens, we are inside a "black swan" whose finality is very difficult to predict. Practically, if the strait remains non-functional, we are heading towards a 2-in-1 crisis: price crisis + volume availability crisis. In order to successfully face this attempt, part of the consumption will have to be sacrificed, starting with the non-essential ones such as vacation trips.

I commented for Digi24 on Friday, April 24, the evolution of prices at the pump in the last 2 weeks. We are still inside the "black swan" phenomenon caused by the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. The fact that we have seen lower prices in Romania in the last 10-12 days is related, on the one hand, to the 2-week truce announced before the Orthodox Easter and, on the other hand, to what is called "Hopium" – trading based on positive feelings and hope for the better. The Brent quote is going up slightly, which means that prices will have an upward slope, as traders will trade based on reality, not hope. And the reality is that free navigation has not been restored in the Strait of Hormuz. It is very good that Romanian drivers took advantage of this mouth of oxygen with lower prices, but this window will close.

Today, at Digi24, about the cleaning that needs to be done in the state area if we want to have fiscal space for measures that will help us get through the upcoming turbulences. An example of a black hole in the state area: Petrotrans (see Oana Gheorghiu's post today). The company has been dead since 2005, bankrupt since 2007, but it has not been issued a death certificate and is still consuming the budget. Public money for a "zombie company".

My dialogue yesterday with Cristi Citre, at Digi24, about the kerosene crisis in European civil aviation and about the IMF's recommendation that governments not reduce taxes.
The main ideas:
– it is too early to be happy, a fact confirmed by the events of today (Saturday) when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again, not even a day after the so-called "opening". It didn't even last a day.
– the aviation fuel crisis does not affect everyone in the same way. The countries with major aviation hubs (London, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam) will be more affected, even if the respective countries have refineries, since the demand in these aviation connection nodes exceeds the production of kerosene in the respective countries. On the other hand, there are countries that cover their needs (Poland, Romania, Greece). Just as there are countries that are 100% vulnerable and dependent on imports (the Republic of Moldova for example), but also countries where there were refineries but which were closed in the last decades as a result of environmental policies (Great Britain had, for example, 18 refineries in the 70s, and now has only 4).
– the IMF recommendation for governments (the one with "Don't reduce taxes") must take into account the level of taxation existing in the respective country before the onset of this crisis. The situations differ, we cannot go by general recommendations, but we must take into account the individual situations.
– all in all, we can't relax yet. The black-and-white game with our nerves and wallets will continue, especially now that Iran has learned that blocking the Strait of Hormuz is a more powerful weapon even than the possession of nuclear weapons.