Media appearances

This morning, at Euronews Romania, I commented on:
– the lack of diesel in some gas stations in the country, a situation that I see rather as a local and temporary anomaly.
– the announcement that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will leave OPEC from May 1, 2026. OPEC membership has acted more like a straitjacket lately. The production limitation policy was against the emirates: average production of 3 Mb/day in 2024, 3.5 Mb/day (the OPEC quota for them, by May 2026) in the context where they can produce 4.8 Mb/day and have invested to increase the production capacity to 5 Mb/day until 2027. The Emirates want not to be tied hand and foot, they will release from the quota OPEC, in order to produce as much as possible, especially now that tourism revenues may decrease. For consumers, this will not necessarily translate into lower prices. In general, cartels are not good for consumers, so the weakening of OPEC by the loss of the UAE is not necessarily bad news.

My discussion yesterday, at Euronews Romania, in which I talked about:
– the temporary lack of fuel in the chain of gas stations with the lowest price in Romania (Petrom)
– the paradoxical situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which is both closed and open at the same time ("Schrödinger Strait")
– the fact that the (unprecedented) decision to remove 400 million barrels from the strategic stocks and the measures taken by governments to moderate the price are only a ANESTHETIC, not even the treatment. The return to normal can only be given by the restoration of free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. Until this happens, we are inside a "black swan" whose finality is very difficult to predict. Practically, if the strait remains non-functional, we are heading towards a 2-in-1 crisis: price crisis + volume availability crisis. In order to successfully face this attempt, part of the consumption will have to be sacrificed, starting with the non-essential ones such as vacation trips.

I commented for Digi24 on Friday, April 24, the evolution of prices at the pump in the last 2 weeks. We are still inside the "black swan" phenomenon caused by the blocking of the Strait of Hormuz. The fact that we have seen lower prices in Romania in the last 10-12 days is related, on the one hand, to the 2-week truce announced before the Orthodox Easter and, on the other hand, to what is called "Hopium" – trading based on positive feelings and hope for the better. The Brent quote is going up slightly, which means that prices will have an upward slope, as traders will trade based on reality, not hope. And the reality is that free navigation has not been restored in the Strait of Hormuz. It is very good that Romanian drivers took advantage of this mouth of oxygen with lower prices, but this window will close.

Today, at Digi24, about the cleaning that needs to be done in the state area if we want to have fiscal space for measures that will help us get through the upcoming turbulences. An example of a black hole in the state area: Petrotrans (see Oana Gheorghiu's post today). The company has been dead since 2005, bankrupt since 2007, but it has not been issued a death certificate and is still consuming the budget. Public money for a "zombie company".

My dialogue yesterday with Cristi Citre, at Digi24, about the kerosene crisis in European civil aviation and about the IMF's recommendation that governments not reduce taxes.
The main ideas:
– it is too early to be happy, a fact confirmed by the events of today (Saturday) when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz again, not even a day after the so-called "opening". It didn't even last a day.
– the aviation fuel crisis does not affect everyone in the same way. The countries with major aviation hubs (London, Frankfurt, Paris, Amsterdam) will be more affected, even if the respective countries have refineries, since the demand in these aviation connection nodes exceeds the production of kerosene in the respective countries. On the other hand, there are countries that cover their needs (Poland, Romania, Greece). Just as there are countries that are 100% vulnerable and dependent on imports (the Republic of Moldova for example), but also countries where there were refineries but which were closed in the last decades as a result of environmental policies (Great Britain had, for example, 18 refineries in the 70s, and now has only 4).
– the IMF recommendation for governments (the one with "Don't reduce taxes") must take into account the level of taxation existing in the respective country before the onset of this crisis. The situations differ, we cannot go by general recommendations, but we must take into account the individual situations.
– all in all, we can't relax yet. The black-and-white game with our nerves and wallets will continue, especially now that Iran has learned that blocking the Strait of Hormuz is a more powerful weapon even than the possession of nuclear weapons.

I talked last week with Gabriela Mihai, at B1.ro, about the fact that everything that happened in March and April is enough to set the course of the world economy on "crisis mode". Vacation plans, which may be affected by higher airline ticket prices, are still a small price to pay compared to the impact on logistics supply chains. I explained what it means to destroy the demand vs deferred consumption.
Towards the end, I mentioned (again) that we can create fiscal space if extravagant expenses are cut. Here, Gabriela reminded very well about the "stress benefit" also known as the "benefit for being upset" that the judges of the CCR receive, benefit in the amount of 2,300 euros/month, in addition to the salary of 10,000 euros/month. But let's not stop here. Let's remember that in our beloved country there is also a "hemorrhoid benefit", at the Neamț County Council, for the employees who sit on the chair! And, in the public institutions of Bacau, there is also a "bonus for tired fingers", for state employees who type too much on the computer! So, the Romanian state would still have room to cut. We have not exhausted the existing savings potential. We have barely scratched the surface.

My comment yesterday, April 15, for Digi24 about:
– the announcement regarding the reopening of the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery in 45 days
– a return to normal rather than a "great success" as presented by the Romanian authorities;
– the IMF warning regarding the possibility of an average oil price of 125 usd/barrel in 2027. How does this translate for Romania and our economy? Constantly high energy prices mean inflation, inflation means reduced purchasing power, amputated consumption, reduced lending to companies, layoffs, closing of production units, companies entering conservation/survival mode, deferred investments, jobs that are not made, less taxes collected by the state. Practically, the wheels of the economy slow down a lot and some even stop.

Yesterday, April 14, on Digi24, in the Evening Journal, talking with Cosmin Prelipceanu about the double blockade of the Strait of Hormuz: the Iranian blockade and the American counter-blockade. I don't know if the "who takes whom out" approach will bear fruit in the present case. Rather, we are heading into even more complicated territory. One madness cannot be solved with another madness. Two anti-access strategies in the same strait cannot calm the oil markets. On the contrary. #HormuzStrait #iranianblockade #TrumpBlockade

My intervention on April 14, at Digi24, in which I went into more detail about what the worst scenario would look like. This crisis is not only about fuels, but about a very wide range of refined products where we can face a shortage: from plastics to bitumen and asphalt or helium which is used in the manufacture of semiconductors. Why is this moment dangerous? Because the current confrontation in the Middle East is a geopolitical Molotov cocktail: very explosive, between two radical camps and which, if left unresolved, will affect everyone in ways we can't even imagine. Exactly as IEA's Fatih Birol said: "No country is immune to this problem".

A collage of my intervention at "Vocile care conteaza" from April 8, at Euronews Romania.
Main ideas:
– We need a permanent solution, not a temporary one for unblocking the Strait of Hormuz. The ceasefire agreement is for 2 weeks, and 2 weeks does not mean permanent.
– The resumption of the flow through the straits against the amount of 2 million dollars/tanker sounds more like the "protection fee" specific to the 90s in the post-Soviet space, by no means a legitimate transit regime.
– the unpredictability of the Trump administration is part of the problem
– The absence of 13 million barrels/day from the market will start to be felt more and more as commercial and strategic stocks are depleted. But the impact will be uneven, mainly affecting the poorer countries in Asia and Africa.