Media appearances

In an analysis of the overlapping crises currently affecting the energy sector, ROEC Director Eugenia Gusilov pointed out that the Romanian state can no longer intervene in the electricity market with massive subsidies and price caps as it did in 2022. The government has yet to clear its outstanding arrears to energy suppliers for previous compensation periods, leaving private operators entirely unable to shoulder another price shock. Meanwhile, public authorities continue to avoid transparent communication regarding what consumers should genuinely expect during the approaching winter.

A critical factor aggravating the electricity supply is the prolonged downtime of the Cernavoda nuclear power plant. While market participants initially anticipated a restart at the end of August according to the original timetable, two months have passed and the facility remains offline in early October. The missing, low-cost baseload energy from Cernavoda must be replaced through purchases on the day-ahead market, where wholesale prices are significantly higher. Eugenia Gusilov emphasized that this extra procurement cost will inevitably filter directly into consumer bills.

Regarding the domestic automotive fuel segment, the situation presents a different set of challenges where the state maintains immediate regulatory and fiscal levers. Implementing relief requires only political will, as the government could readily reduce excise duties to the European Union minimum and cut VAT rates. These actions would immediately alleviate price pressure on consumers at the pump without the need for convoluted compensation schemes.

At the international level, a significant dispute has surfaced between the United States and major European powers, particularly France and Germany, concerning diesel supply security. The American administration openly criticized European governments for refusing to draw from their strategic petroleum reserves, which were supposed to release around 73 million barrels of refined diesel under the coordination of the International Energy Agency. European nations hesitated out of concern over a widening conflict in the Middle East, preferring to protect their domestic reserves while allowing prices to surge and depending on American shipments to balance the market.

This reluctance prompted warnings from Washington regarding possible restrictions on American energy exports to Europe. Following negotiations on Friday, October 2, European countries finally agreed to release 50 million barrels from their diesel stockpiles. Eugenia Gusilov noted that the frustration voiced by the United States was entirely justified, as European partners cannot reasonably demand that Washington continuously supply their market while European capitals sit on strategic reserves during an ongoing price crisis.

These assessments were shared by the ROEC Director during her intervention on B1.ro on Friday, October 2.

Statistical data should be approached merely as an indicative guide, as raw figures rarely capture the full reality on the ground. Statistics represent a simplification, an ongoing human effort to measure and understand complex socioeconomic phenomena. However, aggregate figures often fail to reflect critical nuances and lived experiences, whether assessing energy poverty, unemployment, or inflation.

In the case of inflation, three distinct dimensions must be taken into account. First, there is the official inflation rate measured by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). Second, there are public inflation expectations monitored by the National Bank of Romania (BNR). These expectations are critical because consumer perceptions directly influence purchasing decisions; buyers tend to purchase immediately if they expect prices to climb further, or postpone expenditures if they anticipate future price reductions. Third, there is perceived inflation, which consumers observe firsthand through everyday interactions in shops and supermarkets. These represent three separate realities: official inflation, expected inflation, and inflation directly felt on the ground.

Turning to the energy sector, the upcoming winter will bring higher energy costs, though the actual impact will vary substantially depending on each household's living conditions. ROEC Director Eugenia Gusilov emphasized that the price hike is unlikely to be a modest 5%, projecting instead an average increase closer to 20%.

Home heating remains a strictly individual matter, heavily determined by building energy efficiency, weather conditions, geographic area, and income levels. Consequently, some households may see a 15% rise, whereas others will have to absorb a 25% surge. While national data provides a broad statistical average, these increases represent substantial burdens that cannot be overlooked.

These insights were shared by Eugenia Gusilov during her appearance on Digi24 on Thursday, October 1.

The ghost of the 1990s continues to haunt Chisinau, as ROEC Director Eugenia Gusilov pointed out during her appearance on TVR Moldova on September 28. Addressing the prospect of Igor Makarov becoming involved in Moldova's energy sector, she stressed that salvation will certainly not come from post-Soviet oligarchs with established Kremlin connections and deep ties to Gazprom.

Makarov is the founder of Itera, an intermediary entity that brokered natural gas sales across the post-Soviet space throughout the 1990s and the early 2000s. The company was notably involved in the controversial schemes regarding the resale of Turkmen gas to Ukraine during that era. Today, the Trump administration has recommended Makarov to the government in Chisinau as a credible partner to develop an underground natural gas storage facility.

Eugenia Gusilov warned that a country cannot build its future with figures emerging from the dark legacy of the 1990s. The Republic of Moldova has struggled for 11 years to break free from pro-Russian oligarchs in the East, only to find someone like Makarov arriving through Western channels. In her view, no positive outcome can emerge for Moldova from arrangements with post-Soviet billionaires backed by Washington, especially at a time when US decision-makers appear to lack necessary discernment. Having faced severe setbacks in the past, Moldovan citizens possess the experience and wisdom needed to steer clear of such dangerous overtures, regardless of where the recommendation originates.

Beyond geopolitics, the ROEC Director cautioned that Chisinau must avoid rushing into an uncalibrated alignment with specific European Union regulations. Enforcing an accelerated calendar for increasing fuel excise duties, such as adopting the European minimum of 30 eurocents per liter on diesel, would severely harm the local economy. For a fragile country, authorities must negotiate extended transition periods and heed the principle of making haste slowly.

While reforms are indispensable, pushing the accelerator simultaneously across multiple sectors carries significant risks. Imposing concurrent tariff increases on electricity, natural gas, and diesel places an unsustainable burden on households and businesses. This is particularly hazardous amid a volatile global market for oil and refined petroleum products, given that Moldova produces none of these fuels and relies 100% on imports. Pushing for overly rapid price convergence with the European Union risks alienating the public, leading citizens to associate European integration with living costs they cannot bear. Structural reforms must therefore be phased in with pragmatism and care.

The full discussion is available here: https://www.youtube.com/live/m3I3kQkK9LE

During an intervention on TVR Info on Monday, September 28, Eugenia Gusilov, Director of the Romania Energy Center (ROEC), addressed the pressing issue of how citizens can protect themselves from the inefficiency of the Romanian state. She questioned how much longer Romanians can afford to pay 10 RON for gasoline and 11 RON for diesel, noting that in the United States, a price equivalent to 7 RON per liter is already considered a disaster.

The ROEC Director explained that since the onset of the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, the global market has become highly unpredictable. The situation was further complicated by the political management of the crisis, which drove diesel prices to a historic high in mid-September, reaching 1,600 USD per ton in the Mediterranean and Northwestern Europe. On a local level, she pointed out that Romania keeps perfectly functional refineries closed and relies on massive imports, an approach that amplifies external shocks through domestic mismanagement.

Eugenia Gusilov highlighted the fiscal paradox consumers currently face. The actual commodity accounts for only half the price of fuels, 40 percent for electricity, and a third for natural gas. The remainder consists of taxes, excise duties, VAT, cogeneration bonuses, green certificates, extraction and grid injection tariffs, refining and commercial margins, alongside transport and distribution costs.

She noted that the European Commission encourages member states to cushion prices through taxation. This means governments should lower the fiscal component when the base commodity price rises. When a country cannot influence geopolitical events in the Strait of Hormuz or Bab-el-Mandeb, it should adjust taxes to make prices bearable for consumers. Although the Commission reiterated this position in September when prices surged again, the Romanian state refuses to reduce the fiscal burden, citing the budget deficit as an excuse.

The consequences of this inaction are severe. The ROEC Director emphasized that the economy suffers, companies scale back their activities, consumption shrinks, and foreign investments plummet, dropping by 82 percent in the first six months of 2026 according to data from the National Bank of Romania. Furthermore, inflation continues to severely compress purchasing power.

Addressing concerns about potential fuel shortages, Eugenia Gusilov assured the public that there is no such risk, as the European market is a premium one that will secure the necessary supply. Regarding the warnings from Brussels about reducing winter consumption, she clarified that these recommendations are primarily aimed at other member states, such as France, Germany, and Italy. Romania is already operating in a crisis mode, having reduced consumption since August when severe drought and the shutdown of reactors at the Cernavoda nuclear power plant exposed the limits of the national energy system.

In conclusion, the ROEC Director contrasted Romania with responsible European states that have successfully attracted funds and finalized investments. In Romania, administrative inefficiency has resulted in delays, failed projects, and lost funding. She advised that the only viable formula for protection is investing in your own energy production for self-consumption. Those with the necessary resources are encouraged to invest in their own production capacities and become prosumers by installing photovoltaic panels, storage batteries, and heat pumps.

While Brussels is discussing consumption reduction, Romania has already been on an energy diet since August. On the electricity side, Romania has had mechanisms in place since August, which remain in effect. Consumers who want to optimize their consumption and their bills know what they have to do. Regarding this aspect, Eugenia Gusilov noted that the country has done almost everything possible, including in terms of public communication.

For natural gas, the major difference lies between domestic and industrial consumption. The population has no reason to worry for this winter, as the price remains capped until March 31, 2027. However, there will be pressure on companies and commercial consumers. In terms of volumes and availability, the ROEC Director emphasized that Romania does not risk a physical gas deficit. Underground storage facilities are at an 80% filling capacity, with approximately 2.5 billion cubic meters already stored, after the underground injection rate was accelerated in the second half of September.

Regarding fuels, Eugenia Gusilov explained that there is a risk the United States might block diesel exports to Europe, although this risk is currently minor. The European market imports 30% of its diesel consumption, with the remaining 70% provided by European refineries, and half of these imports come from the US. If this measure materializes, it will severely impact the European market. Following the initial statement by the American president, there have been several tempering messages indicating that the opportunity of implementing this measure is still being analyzed.

Concerning energy bills, the figures advanced by official sources in August, which suggested modest increases of 5% to 10%, were too optimistic. The increases will exceed 20% in the upcoming period. However, the impact will not be felt equally or simultaneously by everyone, but rather upon the renewal of each individual contract, depending on the offers sent by suppliers. These remarks were made during Eugenia Gusilov's intervention on Sunday, September 27, at Digi24.

Panic on the fuel market once again: the kerosene crisis is coming, and plane tickets are getting more expensive. However, Eugenia Gusilov believes Europe will not run out of aviation fuel. Why? Because the continent is part of the so-called golden billion, the developed West alongside the US and Canada, representing the club of economies with the highest financial power. The global market is brutal: when a shortage occurs, volumes are taken away from poorer countries that cannot afford them and directed to those who can pay more. Therefore, Europe will have fuel, but the question is how much it will cost.

Before looking for distant imports from Nigeria or South Korea, the primary European solution is right in its own backyard: restarting refineries that have been put on hold. In Romania, the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery has been shut down for almost a year, a period in which it could have produced diesel, gasoline, and kerosene.

Who wins from this entire crisis? The big winner in the oil and refined products market is the US. Against the backdrop of blockages in the Gulf and the withdrawal of traditional volumes, the United States has consolidated its market share. The exact same pattern is visible in petroleum products as in natural gas: Russian gas was replaced by American LNG, and Middle Eastern products made room for US crude and derivatives.

On the domestic electricity market, regarding utility bills, two aspects must be separated. One is the bill increase caused by higher consumption during heatwave months when air conditioning units ran non-stop. The other is the price increase upon contract renewal for household consumers, where even suppliers with the lowest tariffs on the market, such as Hidroelectrica, have introduced higher prices in their new offers.

What is realistically next? In the short term, the huge pressure weighing on the national energy system will ease once the Cernavoda power plant is brought back online. In the medium term, within one to three years, battery storage projects already under construction will start cutting down peak prices and stabilizing the market at manageable levels. However, if the goal is lower costs and digestible prices, the issue ultimately comes down to taxation. The European Commission clearly told member states as early as spring: if lower prices are desired, taxes must be reduced.

This was part of the intervention by Eugenia Gusilov on B1.ro.

Eugenia Gusilov maintains her diagnosis from this spring, pointing out that we are inside a black swan event, and the consequences are extremely difficult to anticipate. Today, the pressure on fuel prices no longer comes from the crude oil market, but from the refining sector. In September, a tonne of diesel reached a historic level of $1,600 per tonne in the Mediterranean and Northwest Europe, with no such quotations recorded since Platts began monitoring the market.

Europe does not produce enough diesel for domestic consumption and depends on imports. Locally, however, the crisis is unnecessarily amplified because Romania has kept the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery, holding the third largest processing capacity, shut down for a year. Meanwhile, the same company's refineries in Bulgaria and Serbia are operating smoothly despite the sanctions. With the regional market so strained, Romania is keeping a strategic industrial asset on the sidelines instead of operating it to make a profit by selling jet fuel and diesel across Europe.

Regarding fiscal measures, the argument that reducing the excise duty by 25 percent is the maximum possible is false. It is merely the maximum that the state decided to assume through the August emergency ordinance. As long as legislation is in the hands of decision-makers, a total reduction of 50 percent or a direct cut to the minimum excise duty allowed by European rules is entirely feasible. The state has the levers at its disposal, including on VAT, but lacks the willingness to use them.

Externally, expectations of a rapid relaxation have vanished. When the largest American bank, JP Morgan, stops making further crude oil forecasts because all red lines have been crossed, the signal is as serious as it gets. For the population, the gas price remains capped until March 2027, but the shock will be fully absorbed by industry and commercial consumers. As for fuels, as long as the state chooses not to back down on a litre of diesel and refuses to ease up on taxation, consumers will feel no relief in their pockets.

These insights were shared by Eugenia Gusilov during her intervention on Tuesday, September 22, at Euronews Romania.

Gasoline has reached 10 lei/liter, and diesel is approaching 11 lei/liter, prompting the public to look for culprits in the price of a barrel of oil. However, as ROEC points out, the price of Brent crude does not fully explain these levels. Externally, pressure stems from the refining margin. Refineries are operating at maximum capacity, with little room for growth. Superimposed on this is the regional shock in the Russian Federation, where refining capacities affected by Ukrainian drone attacks will not be repaired anytime soon, creating a severe deficit in the refined products market. Ukraine cannot be stopped from launching these attacks as long as the U.S. administration does not provide the interceptor missiles needed to defend against daily bombardments. Ukraine is using its only effective weapon to weaken the adversary by striking directly at Moscow's war chest. The strategy is risky, but Kyiv has no other option.

Internally, Bucharest does not control U.S. decisions in the Strait of Hormuz or the dynamics of the war in Ukraine, but its hands are not completely tied. The Romanian state claims to be helpless, although that is not the case. The Ministry of Finance's decision to maintain the 25% reduction in the diesel excise duty is no longer felt at all. When the cost base and refining margin rise, taxes must be lowered to keep prices bearable for consumers. The government is playing with fire. Faced with uncontrollable external shocks, the only solution is to reduce its own tax share from the final price. Otherwise, the Romanian state is fueling inflation, which will erode purchasing power and collapse living standards, generating unpredictable social and economic tensions.

As explained by ROEC during a media intervention on B1.ro, a proper intervention would mean a courageous 50% reduction in the excise duty, returning to the minimum level permitted in the EU from two years ago applied to both diesel and gasoline, alongside a firm adjustment of the VAT, returning to 19% or even lower. Solutions clearly exist to protect consumers and stabilize the economy.

Fuel prices reflect the bill for poor decisions. Globally, the incompetence of the US administration in managing the intervention in March is being paid for directly. By September, the operation should have been completed, the Strait of Hormuz unblocked, and trade flows resumed. The explosion of prices at the pump in America is 100% the work of an administration incapable of formulating clear objectives and an exit strategy. The Ukrainians are not the ones making gasoline more expensive in the United States when they strike Russian refineries.

The destruction of Russian refineries has regional consequences in Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean basin. Before 2022, Europe sourced half of its required diesel from Russia. Following the sanctions, these volumes were replaced with imports from the Middle East. With the American intervention in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, attention shifted toward US refineries, for which producing diesel became more profitable than producing gasoline. However, US capacities cannot cover global demand. Massive exports to Europe and Asia have created a deficit even in the American market.

Internally, the Romanian state chose the easiest path through over-taxation and the sacrifice of the economy. While in America taxes account for 12-20% of the price, in Romania and Europe taxes account for half, proving that fiscal policy is fundamentally flawed.

Furthermore, the government's refusal to cut the excise duty on gasoline represents an unfair measure. Gasoline is approaching the threshold of 10 lei, although in the spring, when the Brent barrel had risen to 120 dollars, the price at the pump had not reached this level. Regarding the situation at Cernavoda, the crisis has demonstrated that solidarity is mandatory. The drop in consumption in August confirms that the effort made by industrial companies and the population mattered. Those who ostentatiously turn on all the lights, saying they pay and do as they please, are not punishing the state, but are inflating their own next bill, ROEC emphasized in the analysis.

A summer marked by severe drought and the complete shutdown of the Cernavoda Power Plant inevitably impacts final consumer bills. The upcoming winter will not affect everyone in the same way, as an apartment in a block of flats differs significantly from a house equipped with panels, heat pumps, and batteries. While gas benefits from a safety net of capped prices for households, electricity will face regularization.

Regarding fuels, the 25 percent reduction in the diesel excise duty had a minor effect, with prices remaining above 10 lei per liter. The Petrotel-Lukoil refinery is not refining anything, and seller behavior indicates a tacit agreement, where the market leader raises gasoline prices and competitors align immediately to protect their profits. The Competition Council and ANPC need to overcome their lethargy and inspect costs in real time. Cost structures differ radically: Petrom refines crude extracted directly in Romania at Petrobrazi without huge maritime transport costs, theoretically yielding the lowest price. Rompetrol brings crude from Kazakhstan via the Black Sea with higher insurance due to military risks, while MOL imports fuel from Slovakia and Hungary, where it refines cheap Russian crude. How is the exact same price at the pump justified?

Maintaining high excise duties during an energy crisis is considered economic suicide. Eastern European countries, with lower purchasing power than Germany or France, are vulnerable victims, whereas Malta understood this and opted for the minimum excise duty. Romania refuses to lower VAT or request derogations in Brussels, invoking the maintenance of special pensions. If businesses are suffocated, young people leave, and companies like Dacia consider relocation, the question remains who will pay taxes. Continuing on this path paves the way for extremist political growth. The solution lies exclusively with the state through fiscal relaxation and administrative reform, points highlighted by ROEC in a recent discussion.