Media appearances

Gasoline at 10 lei/liter, diesel almost 11 lei/liter. The first public reaction is to look for culprits in the price of the barrel. However, the price of Brent crude oil does not fully explain these prices. Externally… The pressure comes from the refining margin. The refineries are already working at maximum capacity, and their level of utilization has little room to grow. On top of this is the regional shock in the Russian Federation, where the refining capacities were put out of use by the Ukrainian drone attacks and will not be repaired any time soon. This creates a severe deficit on the refined products market. On the other hand, you cannot ask the Ukrainians to stop attacks on Russian refineries as long as the American administration does not provide them with the interceptor missiles necessary to defend their civilians from the daily bombardments. Ukraine uses the only effective weapon it has at its disposal to weaken its opponent: it hits directly in Moscow's war piggy bank. The strategy is risky (because it can affect foreign support), but Kyiv has no other option. Internally, Bucharest does not control the decisions of the American administration in the Strait of Hormuz or the dynamics of the war in Ukraine, but its hands are not completely tied either. The Romanian state pretends to be powerless, although it is not. The decision of the Ministry of Finance to maintain the 25% reduction in the excise duty on diesel is no longer felt at all. When the cost base and the refining margin increase, you have to decrease the taxes – to keep a bearable level for the consumer. The government is playing with fire. When you are faced with external shocks that you cannot control, you do the only thing you can do: you reduce your own share of taxes from the final price. In the other case, if you don't reduce taxes, you (the Romanian state) are fueling inflation. Inflation that will further erode purchasing power and collapse the standard of living. And the accumulation of social and economic tensions can erupt in completely unpredictable ways. A correct intervention would mean a brave 50% reduction in the excise tax (that is, bringing it back to the minimum level allowed in the EU, the level where it was 2 years ago, applied to both diesel and gasoline) and a firm adjustment of the VAT, either returning to 19% or even more. There are solutions. My intervention on Tuesday, September 15 at B1.ro

Tuesday, September 15 on TVR News about gasoline and diesel prices: this is what the bill for a series of bad decisions looks like. At the global level, we are directly paying for the American administration's inability to complete an ill-conceived and poorly implemented intervention that began in March. In September, we were already supposed to see the operation completed, the Strait of Hormuz unblocked and commercial flows resumed. The fact that prices are exploding at the pump in America is 100% the work of Donald Trump, a president unable to formulate clear objectives and a withdrawal strategy. It's not the Ukrainians who make gasoline more expensive in the United States when they hit Russian refineries! The destruction of Russian refineries has regional consequences, in Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean basin. Before 2022, Europe brought half of the diesel fuel needed from Russia. After the sanctions, these volumes were replaced by imports from the Middle East. With the American intervention in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, we turned to American refineries, for which it became much more profitable to produce diesel than gasoline. However, the capacities in the United States (although they are working at their maximum) cannot cover all the global demand. The massive exports to Europe and Asia have created a deficit even on the American domestic market. It is a chain reaction that starts from the same point – the intervention of March 2026. Internally, the Romanian state chooses the easiest solution: overtaxation, sacrificing the economy. If in America the taxes represent between 12% and 20% of the fuel price, in Romania and the rest of Europe the taxes are half of the price. The fiscal policy is fundamentally wrong. The government's decision to reduce the excise tax exclusively on diesel fuel, refusing to apply the measure to gasoline as well, so as not to lose revenue to the budget, is a scam. Gasoline is approaching the threshold of 10 lei, although in the spring, when the barrel of Brent oil rose to 120 dollars, the price at the pump did not reach this level. Related to the situation at Cernavoda (with both reactors shut down for more than a month). The crisis showed us that solidarity is mandatory, no matter what feelings we have towards the government. The 4.3% decrease in consumption in August confirms that the measures of industrial companies and the effort of people who moved the consumption of household appliances outside of peak hours mattered. Those who ostentatiously turn on all the light bulbs in the evening saying that "they pay and do what they want", do not understand a simple economic reality: they are not punishing the state, but inflate their next bill themselves.

Price collusion at the pump, on gasoline this time. On Friday, September 4, gasoline reached a historical record of 9.7 lei/liter in OMV and MOL gas stations. Today, September 8, gasoline has the same price of 9.79 lei/liter at OMV, MOL and Rompetrol, with a penny less at Lukoil (9.78 lei/liter) and 9.73 lei/liter at Petrom stations in Bucharest. … So, it has a little more and reaches almost the same level as diesel, which is sold for over 10 lei at all suppliers. So, the state's efforts to lower the price of diesel by reducing the excise duty by a quarter was quickly absorbed by the market. The increase in the price of gasoline, a product where Romania is a net exporter, is difficult to support with economic arguments. Where does the regional pressure come from? The European market operates on the principle of communicating vessels. When the crisis hit in May, refineries in Europe reconfigured their technological flows to massively produce jet fuel (ensuring kerosene stocks for peak summer travel) and more diesel. Added to this is the increase in the price of the Kazakh variety (CPC Blend, transported through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium) which exceeded the threshold of $100/barrel – this trend affects the price at Rompetrol gas stations! Only Romania has a domestic production of gasoline that exceeds consumption. The price of gasoline should not have increased, at least NOT at all sellers at once. What could the state do? Instead of assisting passively, the Ministry of Finance could extend the dynamic excise duty mechanism to gasoline as well. Until now, we have witnessed an obvious discrimination between drivers: those with diesel cars were partially protected by reducing the excise duty, while drivers with gasoline cars did not benefit from any protection measures. The excise tax on gasoline is currently 3 lei and 6 bani per liter. The state could think of a similar dynamic adjustment mechanism and reduce this tax by 1 leu (ie a 33% reduction). Such a decision would ease the pressure at the pump on the gasoline segment and put an end to unequal fiscal treatment in the market. My discussion with Cristi Citre on Friday, September 4 at Digi24

The perfect storm On the fuel market we are tight as in a vise. The pressure is on three levels: international, regional and internal. – On a global level, the hope that the situation in the Middle East will de-escalate by autumn has evaporated. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, normal traffic has not been restored. Although the Americans claim that the ships pass there, the trading companies that monitor the satellite data show a different reality… – At the regional level, we are witnessing an unusual situation. Russia's refining capacity has been severely affected (60% if not more is out of use). Since July 8, Moscow has completely stopped diesel exports. Therefore, Russian diesel is missing from the regional balance. On top of this picture was added the sudden increase in the price of Kazakh crude oil that comes through the Caspian Consortium Pipeline (CPC Blend assortment) with which we and the Bulgarians have replaced Russian crude oil after 2022. The price for this mixture on which Romania critically depends jumped by 100 dollars per barrel at the beginning of September. On August 27, this assortment cost $87/bbl, and on September 2, the price was already $102/bbl. – Internally, we react at snail's pace. Companies, traders, logistics react instantly, the authorities with the speed of the last century. The Competition Council should quickly investigate why gasoline increased by 20 pennies on Friday, September 4. If in diesel we have an obvious regional crisis, in gasoline Romania has a surplus production: it produces 3 million tons per year, consumes 1.4 million, and the rest is exported. An increase in the price of gasoline in Romania is unjustified. Do we have fair prices at the pump? Definitely not. The problem is related to the Romanian state's absurd taxation logic. Excise taxes are historically designed for diamonds, alcohol or tobacco (that is, for luxury products or vices). In today's reality, gasoline and diesel represent a good of strict necessity, without which the economy freezes, people cannot go to work, and stores cannot be supplied with the necessary items. If the state would stop taxing mobility as a luxury and eliminate the fuel excise tax, we would instantly see a cut of 3 lei per liter for gasoline and 2 lei per liter for diesel. Petrol and diesel are NOT a luxury item! My intervention on Friday, September 4 at Euronews Romania

My intervention on Thursday, September 3, at Digi24 The fact that the fuel excise tax reduction was absorbed by the market in one day has nothing to do with the Strait of Hormuz. The pressure comes from the regional diesel market in the Mediterranean and Black Sea basins. We are witnessing a reconfiguration of trade flows in the last two months: the actors who supplied the regional market with diesel (Russia, Turkey) have turned into buyers. Practically, the price of diesel increases because… Russian diesel has disappeared from the regional balance. On the one hand, Russia lost important refining capacities, which is why it stopped exporting diesel fuel from July 8. She is even looking to buy, in turn, diesel in the market. At the same time, Turkey stopped importing diesel fuel from Russian ports and started purchasing on the free market. When the former regional sellers stop delivering and start bidding for the same volumes available on the open market, demand suddenly increases, and the price per ton of diesel goes up for everyone. Beyond the general context, a correct analysis of the price at the pump requires looking at the cost structure of each gas station chain separately, because the supply differs radically: – Rompetrol brings crude oil from Kazakhstan, refines it at Midia Navodari and distributes it in its own network. – OMV Petrom refines at Petrobrazi approximately 2/3 of domestic crude oil and 1/3 of imported crude oil. – Socar brings diesel from its own refinery (STAR) in Turkey to supply the approximately 100 stations it has in Romania, but it also carries out trading activities. – MOL should have had a lower price at the pump because it refines Russian crude oil (significantly cheaper than Brent), which comes via pipelines (so it bypasses the Black Sea, where higher insurance premiums apply).

Cutting the excise duty on diesel fuel by 25%, from September 1. This month, price pressure comes from the regional diesel market. September is the most complicated month, when a price peak is recorded – a ton of diesel rises to 1,300 – 1,400 dollars (compared to 900 dollars in July). The explanation has to do with the forced reconfiguration of supply chains: diesel produced by Russian refineries is no longer accessible. Russia has stopped exporting diesel fuel since July 8. Turkey used to buy Russian fuel and export its own diesel to the European Union. Now, the Turks compete with the other buyers for the available volumes of fuel. Suspicions related to commercial agreements. When you look and see four large chains of petrol stations displaying an identical price to the decimal point (as it was 10.2 lei per liter at the end of August), it is natural for question marks to appear. There we should see real commercial differentiation, not perfect alignment. That is why such situations must be carefully investigated not only by ANPC, but especially by the Competition Council. When you bring diesel fuel from further away (from India or Red Sea ports), transportation costs increase significantly. To these is added a much higher insurance premium for transport through the Black Sea, where there is a permanent risk of a drone hitting an oil tanker. All these elements can explain a variation of about 30 euro cents (that is, about 1.5 lei per liter more), but strictly in the case of companies that actually import on these expensive routes. That's why the cost structure must be checked for each individual case: let's see who brings diesel fuel from long distances with real costs and who buys it nearby, but inflates the profit margin beyond measure. My discussion with Gabi Mihai from Tuesday, September 1, at B1.ro

My intervention on Tuesday, September 1, at Digi24, about the drop in diesel below the 10 lei threshold. The reduction of 17 bani/liter on the first day of September is strictly the result of the decision of the Ministry of Finance to apply the maximum reduction allowed by law at this time (25%) to the excise tax. The price of diesel fuel has dropped below 10 lei at only one network of stations (at Petrom, from 10.14 to 9.97 lei), but the reduction is fragile and may be swallowed by developments in the regional market… The month of September remains the most difficult test of the fall. Because here, in the regional market, we have structural changes in the supply flows from the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. The strikes that knocked out Russian refineries broke existing trade chains. Russia has stopped exporting diesel fuel since July 8. Turkey, for example, bought diesel fuel from Russia and sold fuel produced in its own refineries to Greece or Romania. Therefore, the Turks compete directly with us on the available volumes of diesel in the region. All these disturbances bring us to a critical point: we enter September with the highest price per ton of diesel this year. September is the absolute peak. The relaxation can only come as the market settles down, and the discounts only after the new commercial routes stabilize.

Discussion about fuels and electricity, with Cristi Citre, Friday, August 28, at Digi24 Motorina "Romania – the richest country in oil" does not correspond to reality, but is rather a myth maintained by nostalgics. We were rich in oil 160 years ago, possibly 40-50 years ago. Today we still produce 2.5 million tons of crude oil per year and consume 11 million tons/year. The fact that our neighbors produce even less does not mean that we are an oil force…. Why do our neighbors pay less at the pump even though they import almost everything? The answer depends primarily on taxation. The Bulgarians go for the lowest possible excise tax (0.33 euro / liter of diesel), and neighboring countries such as Ukraine, Moldova or Serbia are not members of the European Union, which means that they do not have the obligation to align with the minimum level of excise duty imposed by Brussels. Moldova, for example, has the lowest excise duty on diesel in the region, of only 0.17 euros/liter). Otherwise, the level of VAT is similar in the region, with the exception of Hungary, where the rate is huge (27%) but there Russian crude oil is refined (which is cheaper than Brent). Beyond taxation, there are real cost differences throughout the processing and distribution chain. In the spring, the head of OMV spoke of a cost of 0.90 euros for the production of a liter of fuel. Now, we see that bringing the liter to the pump oscillates between 0.9 and 1.2 euros per liter. This difference of 30 eurocents translates directly into a variation of about 1.5 lei per liter between one gas station and another or between one country and another, completely independent of taxes. However, the price range we see since March (9-11 lei/liter) must NOT become the new normal. Electricity What is happening on the electricity market for autumn and winter? The scenarios circulated recently in the public space advance modest increases of 5% to 20% in bills, but they might be too optimistic. If we look at the figures from the contracts still in force (concluded in past years), there we can find a price of 1.1 lei/kWh (at Hidroelectrica, for example). If we refer to the current market offers of, say, 1.4-1.5 lei/kWh, this means an increase of at least 40%, not 5%. We also talked about the auctions on the stock market. Romgaz managed to sell energy for the last quarter of the year at a price of almost 900 lei/MWh, finding a buyer (OMV Petrom). In contrast, the Oltenia Energy Complex faced a stinging failure in August: zero interested buyers, although the asking price was lower (730 lei/MWh). Why does the market refuse cheaper energy from Oltenia? For two reasons. On the one hand, Romgaz sells electricity produced on gas, with considerably lower CO2 emissions, and the market is looking for clean energy. On the other hand, it is about the rigid structure of the offer: Oltenia has put up for sale energy packages in the band for the whole year (January-December). And the buyers do not want to buy coal megawatts in spring and summer, when we have excess solar production.

My intervention on Friday, August 28 at Antena 3 If we want to know exactly what will happen with energy prices, we listen to what the suppliers say. We have signed contracts with the suppliers. If they say the price will go up, it means it will go up. Regarding the possible increases in the electricity bill, at the moment in the public space there are the following estimates:… – Ministry of Energy (Sorin Elisei): 5% – Ministry of Energy (Cristian Busoi): 10% – Association of Electric Energy Suppliers of Romania – AFEER (Laurentiu Urluescu): 5-10% – Asociatia Energia Inteligenta (AEI): 3%-20% – Romania Energy Center (ROEC): at the expiration current contracts, in certain cases, the new offers could be 30%-40% higher. Regarding Cernavoda, the chances of restarting both reactors simultaneously are small (somewhere around 30%). It is much more feasible to restart one alone (around the middle of September) and to restart the other towards the end of September or the beginning of October. It would be ideal to return to normal operation in October, with both reactors connected to the grid. Why is it taking so long, if it was still announced that it rained? It rained upstream, Hungary is closer and benefited first from the increase in flows. Until the water reaches us and until the level of the Danube rises enough to have an effect in the area of ​​the Cernavoda plant, we still have to wait about 10-12 days. Only then is the problem of water needed for cooling solved.

Talk about gas bills. Let's not panic. Even though we had an unfortunate sequence of crises this year, the situation is more settled in the natural gas area. Yes, Europe enters the cold season with a lower degree of filling of underground storages than in previous years, but this does not mean that we are left without gas. The blocking of exports through the Strait of Hormuz primarily affects the Asian market, where 80% of the volumes exported by Qatar arrived (only 20% went … to Europe). For the European market, the deficit of about 20 billion cubic meters is manageable. The United States is today the world's #1 exporter of liquefied natural gas (LNG), and US LNG volumes can make up for the lack of Qatari gas in Europe. Of course, Europe will have to pay more to attract the non-contracted American LNG ships (for which we compete with Asia), but the physical supply will not be endangered. As far as Romania is concerned, the price pressure is amortized by the capped price mechanism (for households) until next spring (March-April 2027). In addition, we rely on domestic production, to which is added the prospect of gas from Neptune Deep, expected to enter the market also in the spring. We have enough safety nets. My intervention on Tuesday, August 25 at Digi24