Romania Energy Center | The 1st energy studies Think-Tank in Romania

27Sep 2026

Digi24

While Brussels discusses consumption reduction, Romania has already been on an energy diet since August, according to Eugenia Gusilov, Director of ROEC. On the electricity side, Romania has implemented mechanisms since August that remain in force. Consumers wishing to optimize their consumption and bills are well-informed, and authorities have done everything possible in this regard, including public communication. Regarding natural gas, a major distinction exists between household and industrial consumption. The population has no reason to worry this winter, as prices remain capped until March 31, 2027. However, pressure will persist on companies and commercial consumers. In terms of volumes and availability, Romania faces no risk of a physical gas deficit. Underground storage facilities have reached an 80% filling rate, totaling approximately 2.5 billion cubic meters stored, following an accelerated injection rate in the second half of September. Concerning fuels, a potential risk exists regarding the United States possibly blocking diesel exports to Europe, though this risk remains minor for now. The European market imports 30% of its diesel consumption, with the remaining 70% supplied by European refineries, and half of those imports originating from the US. If implemented, such a measure would severely impact the European market, although calming statements regarding the analysis of the measure followed the initial presidential announcement. Regarding energy bills, official figures from August predicting modest increases of 5-10% proved overly optimistic. Increases will exceed 20% in the coming period, though the impact will not hit everyone simultaneously, occurring instead upon the renewal of each contract based on supplier offers, as explained during the intervention by Eugenia Gusilov at Digi24 on Sunday, September 27.

22Sep 2026

B1

Panic on the fuel market once again: the kerosene crisis is coming, and plane tickets are getting more expensive. However, Eugenia Gusilov believes Europe will not run out of aviation fuel. Why? Because the continent is part of the so-called golden billion, the developed West alongside the US and Canada, representing the club of economies with the highest financial power. The global market is brutal: when a shortage occurs, volumes are taken away from poorer countries that cannot afford them and directed to those who can pay more. Therefore, Europe will have fuel, but the question is how much it will cost. Before looking for distant imports from Nigeria or South Korea, the primary European solution is right in its own backyard: restarting refineries that have been put on hold. In Romania, the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery has been shut down for almost a year, a period in which it could have produced diesel, gasoline, and kerosene. Who wins from this entire crisis? The big winner in the oil and refined products market is the US. Against the backdrop of blockages in the Gulf and the withdrawal of traditional volumes, the United States has consolidated its market share. The exact same pattern is visible in petroleum products as in natural gas: Russian gas was replaced by American LNG, and Middle Eastern products made room for US crude and derivatives. On the domestic electricity market, regarding utility bills, two aspects must be separated. One is the bill increase caused by higher consumption during heatwave months when air conditioning units ran non-stop. The other is the price increase upon contract renewal for household consumers, where even suppliers with the lowest tariffs on the market, such as Hidroelectrica, have introduced higher prices in their new offers. What is realistically next? In the short term, the huge pressure weighing on the national energy system will ease once the Cernavoda power plant is brought back online. In the medium term, within one to three years, battery storage projects already under construction will start cutting down peak prices and stabilizing the market at manageable levels. However, if the goal is lower costs and digestible prices, the issue ultimately comes down to taxation. The European Commission clearly told member states as early as spring: if lower prices are desired, taxes must be reduced. This was part of the intervention by Eugenia Gusilov on B1.ro.

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Panic on the fuel market once again: the kerosene crisis is coming, and plane tickets are getting more expensive. However, Eugenia Gusilov believes Europe will not run out of aviation fuel. Why? Because the continent is part of the so-called golden billion, the developed West alongside the US and Canada, representing the club of economies with the highest financial power. The global market is brutal: when a shortage occurs, volumes are taken away from poorer countries that cannot afford them and directed to those who can pay more. Therefore, Europe will have fuel, but the question is how much it will cost.

Before looking for distant imports from Nigeria or South Korea, the primary European solution is right in its own backyard: restarting refineries that have been put on hold. In Romania, the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery has been shut down for almost a year, a period in which it could have produced diesel, gasoline, and kerosene.

Who wins from this entire crisis? The big winner in the oil and refined products market is the US. Against the backdrop of blockages in the Gulf and the withdrawal of traditional volumes, the United States has consolidated its market share. The exact same pattern is visible in petroleum products as in natural gas: Russian gas was replaced by American LNG, and Middle Eastern products made room for US crude and derivatives.

On the domestic electricity market, regarding utility bills, two aspects must be separated. One is the bill increase caused by higher consumption during heatwave months when air conditioning units ran non-stop. The other is the price increase upon contract renewal for household consumers, where even suppliers with the lowest tariffs on the market, such as Hidroelectrica, have introduced higher prices in their new offers.

What is realistically next? In the short term, the huge pressure weighing on the national energy system will ease once the Cernavoda power plant is brought back online. In the medium term, within one to three years, battery storage projects already under construction will start cutting down peak prices and stabilizing the market at manageable levels. However, if the goal is lower costs and digestible prices, the issue ultimately comes down to taxation. The European Commission clearly told member states as early as spring: if lower prices are desired, taxes must be reduced.

This was part of the intervention by Eugenia Gusilov on B1.ro.

22Sep 2026

Euronews

Eugenia Gusilov maintains her diagnosis from this spring, pointing out that we are inside a black swan event, and the consequences are extremely difficult to anticipate. Today, the pressure on fuel prices no longer comes from the crude oil market, but from the refining sector. In September, a tonne of diesel reached a historic level of $1,600 per tonne in the Mediterranean and Northwest Europe, with no such quotations recorded since Platts began monitoring the market. Europe does not produce enough diesel for domestic consumption and depends on imports. Locally, however, the crisis is unnecessarily amplified because Romania has kept the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery, holding the third largest processing capacity, shut down for a year. Meanwhile, the same company's refineries in Bulgaria and Serbia are operating smoothly despite the sanctions. With the regional market so strained, Romania is keeping a strategic industrial asset on the sidelines instead of operating it to make a profit by selling jet fuel and diesel across Europe. Regarding fiscal measures, the argument that reducing the excise duty by 25 percent is the maximum possible is false. It is merely the maximum that the state decided to assume through the August emergency ordinance. As long as legislation is in the hands of decision-makers, a total reduction of 50 percent or a direct cut to the minimum excise duty allowed by European rules is entirely feasible. The state has the levers at its disposal, including on VAT, but lacks the willingness to use them. Externally, expectations of a rapid relaxation have vanished. When the largest American bank, JP Morgan, stops making further crude oil forecasts because all red lines have been crossed, the signal is as serious as it gets. For the population, the gas price remains capped until March 2027, but the shock will be fully absorbed by industry and commercial consumers. As for fuels, as long as the state chooses not to back down on a litre of diesel and refuses to ease up on taxation, consumers will feel no relief in their pockets. These insights were shared by Eugenia Gusilov during her intervention on Tuesday, September 22, at Euronews Romania.

15Sep 2026

B1

Gasoline has reached 10 lei/liter, and diesel is approaching 11 lei/liter, prompting the public to look for culprits in the price of a barrel of oil. However, as ROEC points out, the price of Brent crude does not fully explain these levels. Externally, pressure stems from the refining margin. Refineries are operating at maximum capacity, with little room for growth. Superimposed on this is the regional shock in the Russian Federation, where refining capacities affected by Ukrainian drone attacks will not be repaired anytime soon, creating a severe deficit in the refined products market. Ukraine cannot be stopped from launching these attacks as long as the U.S. administration does not provide the interceptor missiles needed to defend against daily bombardments. Ukraine is using its only effective weapon to weaken the adversary by striking directly at Moscow's war chest. The strategy is risky, but Kyiv has no other option. Internally, Bucharest does not control U.S. decisions in the Strait of Hormuz or the dynamics of the war in Ukraine, but its hands are not completely tied. The Romanian state claims to be helpless, although that is not the case. The Ministry of Finance's decision to maintain the 25% reduction in the diesel excise duty is no longer felt at all. When the cost base and refining margin rise, taxes must be lowered to keep prices bearable for consumers. The government is playing with fire. Faced with uncontrollable external shocks, the only solution is to reduce its own tax share from the final price. Otherwise, the Romanian state is fueling inflation, which will erode purchasing power and collapse living standards, generating unpredictable social and economic tensions. As explained by ROEC during a media intervention on B1.ro, a proper intervention would mean a courageous 50% reduction in the excise duty, returning to the minimum level permitted in the EU from two years ago applied to both diesel and gasoline, alongside a firm adjustment of the VAT, returning to 19% or even lower. Solutions clearly exist to protect consumers and stabilize the economy.

15Sep 2026

TVR Info

Fuel prices reflect the bill for poor decisions. Globally, the incompetence of the US administration in managing the intervention in March is being paid for directly. By September, the operation should have been completed, the Strait of Hormuz unblocked, and trade flows resumed. The explosion of prices at the pump in America is 100% the work of an administration incapable of formulating clear objectives and an exit strategy. The Ukrainians are not the ones making gasoline more expensive in the United States when they strike Russian refineries. The destruction of Russian refineries has regional consequences in Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean basin. Before 2022, Europe sourced half of its required diesel from Russia. Following the sanctions, these volumes were replaced with imports from the Middle East. With the American intervention in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, attention shifted toward US refineries, for which producing diesel became more profitable than producing gasoline. However, US capacities cannot cover global demand. Massive exports to Europe and Asia have created a deficit even in the American market. Internally, the Romanian state chose the easiest path through over-taxation and the sacrifice of the economy. While in America taxes account for 12-20% of the price, in Romania and Europe taxes account for half, proving that fiscal policy is fundamentally flawed. Furthermore, the government's refusal to cut the excise duty on gasoline represents an unfair measure. Gasoline is approaching the threshold of 10 lei, although in the spring, when the Brent barrel had risen to 120 dollars, the price at the pump had not reached this level. Regarding the situation at Cernavoda, the crisis has demonstrated that solidarity is mandatory. The drop in consumption in August confirms that the effort made by industrial companies and the population mattered. Those who ostentatiously turn on all the lights, saying they pay and do as they please, are not punishing the state, but are inflating their own next bill, ROEC emphasized in the analysis.

8Sep 2026

Prima News

A summer marked by severe drought and the complete shutdown of the Cernavoda Power Plant inevitably impacts final consumer bills. The upcoming winter will not affect everyone in the same way, as an apartment in a block of flats differs significantly from a house equipped with panels, heat pumps, and batteries. While gas benefits from a safety net of capped prices for households, electricity will face regularization. Regarding fuels, the 25 percent reduction in the diesel excise duty had a minor effect, with prices remaining above 10 lei per liter. The Petrotel-Lukoil refinery is not refining anything, and seller behavior indicates a tacit agreement, where the market leader raises gasoline prices and competitors align immediately to protect their profits. The Competition Council and ANPC need to overcome their lethargy and inspect costs in real time. Cost structures differ radically: Petrom refines crude extracted directly in Romania at Petrobrazi without huge maritime transport costs, theoretically yielding the lowest price. Rompetrol brings crude from Kazakhstan via the Black Sea with higher insurance due to military risks, while MOL imports fuel from Slovakia and Hungary, where it refines cheap Russian crude. How is the exact same price at the pump justified? Maintaining high excise duties during an energy crisis is considered economic suicide. Eastern European countries, with lower purchasing power than Germany or France, are vulnerable victims, whereas Malta understood this and opted for the minimum excise duty. Romania refuses to lower VAT or request derogations in Brussels, invoking the maintenance of special pensions. If businesses are suffocated, young people leave, and companies like Dacia consider relocation, the question remains who will pay taxes. Continuing on this path paves the way for extremist political growth. The solution lies exclusively with the state through fiscal relaxation and administrative reform, points highlighted by ROEC in a recent discussion.

4Sep 2026

Digi24

Potential fuel price collusion at the pump has occurred once again in the case of gasoline. It reached a record level of RON 9.7 per liter at OMV and MOL stations, with the price expected to rapidly standardize across most suppliers, coming dangerously close to the threshold of diesel, which is sold at over RON 10. Consequently, the state's effort to cheapen diesel by reducing the excise duty was quickly absorbed by the market. The price increase for gasoline, a product for which Romania is a net exporter, is difficult to support through economic arguments. Regional pressure stems from the fact that the European market operates on the principle of communicating vessels. When the crisis hit, refineries in Europe reconfigured their flows to massively produce aviation fuel and more diesel. To this was added the price increase of the Kazakh CPC Blend grade, which exceeded 100 dollars per barrel, influencing Rompetrol stations. Only Romania has a domestic gasoline production that exceeds consumption, which is why the price should not have increased simultaneously at all vendors. What could the state do? Instead of standing by passively, the Ministry of Finance could have extended the dynamic excise duty mechanism to gasoline as well. There has been clear discrimination, as drivers of diesel cars were partially protected through the reduction of the excise duty, while drivers of gasoline-powered cars did not benefit from any measure. The excise duty on gasoline currently stands at over RON 3 per liter, and the state could have devised a mechanism to reduce this tax by at least RON 1, meaning a 33 percent decrease. Such a decision would have mitigated the pressure at the pump and put an end to the unequal fiscal treatment, according to the analysis conducted by ROEC.

4Sep 2026

Euronews

The fuel market is caught in a tight vice, facing a perfect storm with pressure mounting on three distinct levels: international, regional, and internal. Globally, hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East by autumn have evaporated. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and normal traffic has not been restored. Although American officials claim ships are passing through, trading companies monitoring satellite data reveal a different reality. Regionally, an unusual situation is unfolding. Russia's refining capacity has been severely affected, with 60% or more currently out of use. Since July 8, Moscow has completely halted diesel exports, meaning Russian diesel is missing from the regional balance. Compounding this, a sudden price surge hit Kazakh crude oil arriving via the Caspian Consortium Pipeline (CPC Blend). Romania and Bulgaria have relied on this assortment to replace Russian crude since 2022. The price of this mixture, upon which Romania critically depends, jumped by 100 dollars per barrel at the beginning of September. On August 27, the assortment cost $87/bbl, but by September 2, the price reached $102/bbl. Internally, authorities react at a snail's pace while companies, traders, and logistics move instantly. The Competition Council should swiftly investigate why gasoline prices increased by 20 bani on Friday, September 4. While diesel faces a clear regional crisis, Romania maintains a surplus in gasoline production: it produces 3 million tons annually, consumes 1.4 million, and exports the rest. Thus, a price increase for gasoline in Romania is entirely unjustified. Fair prices at the pump are certainly lacking. The core issue lies in the Romanian state's absurd taxation logic. Excise taxes were historically designed for luxuries or vices like diamonds, alcohol, or tobacco. In today's reality, gasoline and diesel represent strict necessities; without them, the economy freezes, citizens cannot commute, and stores cannot be supplied. If the state stopped taxing mobility as a luxury and eliminated the fuel excise tax, a direct price cut of 3 lei per liter for gasoline and 2 lei per liter for diesel would be seen instantly. Petrol and diesel are not luxury items. These insights were detailed during an intervention on Euronews Romania.

3Sep 2026

Digi24

During her intervention on Thursday, September 3, at Digi24, Eugenia Gusilov explained that the fact that the fuel excise tax reduction was absorbed by the market in a single day has nothing to do with the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, the pressure comes from the regional diesel market in the Mediterranean and Black Sea basins. She noted that we are witnessing a reconfiguration of trade flows over the last two months, as actors who previously supplied the regional market with diesel, such as Russia and Turkey, have turned into buyers. Practically, the price of diesel increases because Russian diesel has disappeared from the regional balance. On one hand, Russia has lost important refining capacities, leading it to halt diesel exports from July 8 and even look to buy diesel on the market. At the same time, Turkey stopped importing diesel fuel from Russian ports and started purchasing on the free market. When former regional sellers stop delivering and start bidding for the same volumes available on the open market, demand suddenly increases, and the price per ton of diesel goes up for everyone. Furthermore, Gusilov emphasized that a correct analysis of the price at the pump requires looking at the cost structure of each gas station chain separately, because supply differs radically: - Rompetrol brings crude oil from Kazakhstan, refines it at Midia Navodari, and distributes it through its own network. - OMV Petrom refines at Petrobrazi approximately two-thirds of domestic crude oil and one-third of imported crude oil. - Socar brings diesel from its own STAR refinery in Turkey to supply the roughly 100 stations it operates in Romania, while also engaging in trading activities. - MOL should theoretically have a lower price at the pump because it refines Russian crude oil, which is significantly cheaper than Brent and arrives via pipelines, thereby bypassing the Black Sea where higher insurance premiums apply.

1Sep 2026

B1

The excise duty on diesel fuel was cut by 25% starting September 1. This month, price pressure comes primarily from the regional diesel market. September is considered the most complicated month, recording a price peak where a ton of diesel rises to 1,300 - 1,400 dollars, compared to 900 dollars in July. The explanation relates to the forced reconfiguration of supply chains, as diesel produced by Russian refineries is no longer accessible. Russia stopped exporting diesel fuel on July 8. Previously, Turkey used to buy Russian fuel and export its own diesel to the European Union. Now, Turkish buyers compete with other purchasers for available fuel volumes. Suspensions related to commercial agreements also arise. When observing four large petrol station chains displaying an identical price down to the decimal point, such as 10.2 lei per liter at the end of August, it is natural for question marks to appear. Real commercial differentiation should be visible rather than perfect alignment. Therefore, such situations must be carefully investigated not only by the National Authority for Consumer Protection, but especially by the Competition Council. When diesel fuel is brought from further away, such as India or Red Sea ports, transportation costs increase significantly. Added to these are much higher insurance premiums for transport through the Black Sea, where there is a permanent risk of a drone striking an oil tanker. All these elements can explain a variation of about 30 euro cents, roughly 1.5 lei more per liter, but strictly for companies that actually import via these expensive routes. Consequently, the cost structure must be checked for each individual case to determine who brings diesel fuel from long distances with real costs and who buys it nearby while inflating profit margins beyond measure. These insights were discussed by Eugenia Gusilov with Gabi Mihai on Tuesday, September 1, at B1.ro.

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