At B1.ro, Eugenia Gusilov discussed the impact of the tense situation between Israel and Hamas on energy markets.

Oil: The impact on the oil market is minimal. Israel is not an oil producer. WTI prices remain below $90/bbl, and pump prices in Romania are lower than in September.

Natural gas: The temporary suspension of operations at the Tamar field offshore near the Gaza Strip, although poorly timed at the start of the cold season, cannot significantly affect Europe over the next 2 months. The market reacted with gas prices rising to €50/MWh in Europe, remaining far from the peak of €340/MWh reached in August 2022. Since Israel is a gas producer and exporter, the impact may manifest as higher LNG prices upon which Europe has relied heavily.

The chain reaction affecting European consumers runs from Israeli production at the Tamar and Leviathan offshore fields to pipeline gas exports to Egypt due to a lack of local liquefaction infrastructure. In Egypt, gas is turned into LNG and exported to the European market. Last year, Israel recorded record gas production, and Egypt posted record LNG exports.

Impact on Romania: Minimal. Romanian consumers have no reason to worry as the country remains under the compensation-capping scheme until March 2025 under the subsidized price regime. A favorable factor includes maximum storage filling levels in underground facilities for the winter both in Romania and across Europe.