Eugenia Gusilov maintains her diagnosis from this spring, pointing out that we are inside a black swan event, and the consequences are extremely difficult to anticipate. Today, the pressure on fuel prices no longer comes from the crude oil market, but from the refining sector. In September, a tonne of diesel reached a historic level of $1,600 per tonne in the Mediterranean and Northwest Europe, with no such quotations recorded since Platts began monitoring the market.

Europe does not produce enough diesel for domestic consumption and depends on imports. Locally, however, the crisis is unnecessarily amplified because Romania has kept the Petrotel-Lukoil refinery, holding the third largest processing capacity, shut down for a year. Meanwhile, the same company's refineries in Bulgaria and Serbia are operating smoothly despite the sanctions. With the regional market so strained, Romania is keeping a strategic industrial asset on the sidelines instead of operating it to make a profit by selling jet fuel and diesel across Europe.

Regarding fiscal measures, the argument that reducing the excise duty by 25 percent is the maximum possible is false. It is merely the maximum that the state decided to assume through the August emergency ordinance. As long as legislation is in the hands of decision-makers, a total reduction of 50 percent or a direct cut to the minimum excise duty allowed by European rules is entirely feasible. The state has the levers at its disposal, including on VAT, but lacks the willingness to use them.

Externally, expectations of a rapid relaxation have vanished. When the largest American bank, JP Morgan, stops making further crude oil forecasts because all red lines have been crossed, the signal is as serious as it gets. For the population, the gas price remains capped until March 2027, but the shock will be fully absorbed by industry and commercial consumers. As for fuels, as long as the state chooses not to back down on a litre of diesel and refuses to ease up on taxation, consumers will feel no relief in their pockets.

These insights were shared by Eugenia Gusilov during her intervention on Tuesday, September 22, at Euronews Romania.