The fuel market is caught in a tight vice, facing a perfect storm with pressure mounting on three distinct levels: international, regional, and internal.

Globally, hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East by autumn have evaporated. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and normal traffic has not been restored. Although American officials claim ships are passing through, trading companies monitoring satellite data reveal a different reality.

Regionally, an unusual situation is unfolding. Russia's refining capacity has been severely affected, with 60% or more currently out of use. Since July 8, Moscow has completely halted diesel exports, meaning Russian diesel is missing from the regional balance.

Compounding this, a sudden price surge hit Kazakh crude oil arriving via the Caspian Consortium Pipeline (CPC Blend). Romania and Bulgaria have relied on this assortment to replace Russian crude since 2022. The price of this mixture, upon which Romania critically depends, jumped by 100 dollars per barrel at the beginning of September. On August 27, the assortment cost $87/bbl, but by September 2, the price reached $102/bbl.

Internally, authorities react at a snail's pace while companies, traders, and logistics move instantly. The Competition Council should swiftly investigate why gasoline prices increased by 20 bani on Friday, September 4. While diesel faces a clear regional crisis, Romania maintains a surplus in gasoline production: it produces 3 million tons annually, consumes 1.4 million, and exports the rest. Thus, a price increase for gasoline in Romania is entirely unjustified.

Fair prices at the pump are certainly lacking. The core issue lies in the Romanian state's absurd taxation logic. Excise taxes were historically designed for luxuries or vices like diamonds, alcohol, or tobacco. In today's reality, gasoline and diesel represent strict necessities; without them, the economy freezes, citizens cannot commute, and stores cannot be supplied.

If the state stopped taxing mobility as a luxury and eliminated the fuel excise tax, a direct price cut of 3 lei per liter for gasoline and 2 lei per liter for diesel would be seen instantly. Petrol and diesel are not luxury items.

These insights were detailed during an intervention on Euronews Romania.