On Friday, March 6, at Digi24, when the price had already reached 92 usd/barrel in a week, Eugenia Gusilov discussed how blocking traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has the potential to turn a regional crisis into a black swan event to a greater extent than the moment in 2022 when Russia attacked Ukraine.

Gusilov explained why transport is the first to react and who the two big beneficiaries of the increase in crude oil prices are. On the one hand, Russia can sell its assortment at a higher price, and on the other hand, the USA also stands to gain from the price change.

The key question raised is what level of the oil price above 100 usd/barrel can cause the American administration to end the military intervention in Iran faster, forcing the administration to take the American consumer into account.