In a recent discussion with Digi24, Eugenia Gusilov analyzed how storm clouds are gathering over the fuel market. Ukrainian drone attacks on several Russian refineries could remove a quantity of fuel from the global market because, by affecting refining capacity, the volume of fuel available on the market is reduced. Ukraine is, of course, 100% justified in targeting Russia's piggy bank, but this factor might contribute to higher prices at the pump.

Other contributing factors include higher costs for transporting crude oil and petroleum products, ever since Houthi rebels began deliberately attacking ships carrying crude and petroleum products in the Red Sea, as well as the busy schedule of planned maintenance at US refineries in Q1 2024.

The United States plays a very important role in maintaining the stability of the European fuel market. When Europe gave up importing gasoline and diesel directly from Russia, the countries that filled this gap were those in the Middle East, India, and the USA. However, when shipments from the Middle East decreased, the USA increased the volume of diesel exported to Europe—something it will not be able to do now due to maintenance work at its own refineries, which temporarily takes out of service about 10% of American refining capacity.