Media appearances

Gasoline has reached 10 lei/liter, and diesel is approaching 11 lei/liter, prompting the public to look for culprits in the price of a barrel of oil. However, as ROEC points out, the price of Brent crude does not fully explain these levels. Externally, pressure stems from the refining margin. Refineries are operating at maximum capacity, with little room for growth. Superimposed on this is the regional shock in the Russian Federation, where refining capacities affected by Ukrainian drone attacks will not be repaired anytime soon, creating a severe deficit in the refined products market. Ukraine cannot be stopped from launching these attacks as long as the U.S. administration does not provide the interceptor missiles needed to defend against daily bombardments. Ukraine is using its only effective weapon to weaken the adversary by striking directly at Moscow's war chest. The strategy is risky, but Kyiv has no other option.

Internally, Bucharest does not control U.S. decisions in the Strait of Hormuz or the dynamics of the war in Ukraine, but its hands are not completely tied. The Romanian state claims to be helpless, although that is not the case. The Ministry of Finance's decision to maintain the 25% reduction in the diesel excise duty is no longer felt at all. When the cost base and refining margin rise, taxes must be lowered to keep prices bearable for consumers. The government is playing with fire. Faced with uncontrollable external shocks, the only solution is to reduce its own tax share from the final price. Otherwise, the Romanian state is fueling inflation, which will erode purchasing power and collapse living standards, generating unpredictable social and economic tensions.

As explained by ROEC during a media intervention on B1.ro, a proper intervention would mean a courageous 50% reduction in the excise duty, returning to the minimum level permitted in the EU from two years ago applied to both diesel and gasoline, alongside a firm adjustment of the VAT, returning to 19% or even lower. Solutions clearly exist to protect consumers and stabilize the economy.

Fuel prices reflect the bill for poor decisions. Globally, the incompetence of the US administration in managing the intervention in March is being paid for directly. By September, the operation should have been completed, the Strait of Hormuz unblocked, and trade flows resumed. The explosion of prices at the pump in America is 100% the work of an administration incapable of formulating clear objectives and an exit strategy. The Ukrainians are not the ones making gasoline more expensive in the United States when they strike Russian refineries.

The destruction of Russian refineries has regional consequences in Eastern Europe and the Mediterranean basin. Before 2022, Europe sourced half of its required diesel from Russia. Following the sanctions, these volumes were replaced with imports from the Middle East. With the American intervention in Iran and the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, attention shifted toward US refineries, for which producing diesel became more profitable than producing gasoline. However, US capacities cannot cover global demand. Massive exports to Europe and Asia have created a deficit even in the American market.

Internally, the Romanian state chose the easiest path through over-taxation and the sacrifice of the economy. While in America taxes account for 12-20% of the price, in Romania and Europe taxes account for half, proving that fiscal policy is fundamentally flawed.

Furthermore, the government's refusal to cut the excise duty on gasoline represents an unfair measure. Gasoline is approaching the threshold of 10 lei, although in the spring, when the Brent barrel had risen to 120 dollars, the price at the pump had not reached this level. Regarding the situation at Cernavoda, the crisis has demonstrated that solidarity is mandatory. The drop in consumption in August confirms that the effort made by industrial companies and the population mattered. Those who ostentatiously turn on all the lights, saying they pay and do as they please, are not punishing the state, but are inflating their own next bill, ROEC emphasized in the analysis.

Potential fuel price collusion at the pump has occurred once again in the case of gasoline. It reached a record level of RON 9.7 per liter at OMV and MOL stations, with the price expected to rapidly standardize across most suppliers, coming dangerously close to the threshold of diesel, which is sold at over RON 10.

Consequently, the state's effort to cheapen diesel by reducing the excise duty was quickly absorbed by the market. The price increase for gasoline, a product for which Romania is a net exporter, is difficult to support through economic arguments.

Regional pressure stems from the fact that the European market operates on the principle of communicating vessels. When the crisis hit, refineries in Europe reconfigured their flows to massively produce aviation fuel and more diesel. To this was added the price increase of the Kazakh CPC Blend grade, which exceeded 100 dollars per barrel, influencing Rompetrol stations. Only Romania has a domestic gasoline production that exceeds consumption, which is why the price should not have increased simultaneously at all vendors.

What could the state do? Instead of standing by passively, the Ministry of Finance could have extended the dynamic excise duty mechanism to gasoline as well. There has been clear discrimination, as drivers of diesel cars were partially protected through the reduction of the excise duty, while drivers of gasoline-powered cars did not benefit from any measure.

The excise duty on gasoline currently stands at over RON 3 per liter, and the state could have devised a mechanism to reduce this tax by at least RON 1, meaning a 33 percent decrease. Such a decision would have mitigated the pressure at the pump and put an end to the unequal fiscal treatment, according to the analysis conducted by ROEC.

The fuel market is caught in a tight vice, facing a perfect storm with pressure mounting on three distinct levels: international, regional, and internal.

Globally, hopes for a de-escalation in the Middle East by autumn have evaporated. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, and normal traffic has not been restored. Although American officials claim ships are passing through, trading companies monitoring satellite data reveal a different reality.

Regionally, an unusual situation is unfolding. Russia's refining capacity has been severely affected, with 60% or more currently out of use. Since July 8, Moscow has completely halted diesel exports, meaning Russian diesel is missing from the regional balance.

Compounding this, a sudden price surge hit Kazakh crude oil arriving via the Caspian Consortium Pipeline (CPC Blend). Romania and Bulgaria have relied on this assortment to replace Russian crude since 2022. The price of this mixture, upon which Romania critically depends, jumped by 100 dollars per barrel at the beginning of September. On August 27, the assortment cost $87/bbl, but by September 2, the price reached $102/bbl.

Internally, authorities react at a snail's pace while companies, traders, and logistics move instantly. The Competition Council should swiftly investigate why gasoline prices increased by 20 bani on Friday, September 4. While diesel faces a clear regional crisis, Romania maintains a surplus in gasoline production: it produces 3 million tons annually, consumes 1.4 million, and exports the rest. Thus, a price increase for gasoline in Romania is entirely unjustified.

Fair prices at the pump are certainly lacking. The core issue lies in the Romanian state's absurd taxation logic. Excise taxes were historically designed for luxuries or vices like diamonds, alcohol, or tobacco. In today's reality, gasoline and diesel represent strict necessities; without them, the economy freezes, citizens cannot commute, and stores cannot be supplied.

If the state stopped taxing mobility as a luxury and eliminated the fuel excise tax, a direct price cut of 3 lei per liter for gasoline and 2 lei per liter for diesel would be seen instantly. Petrol and diesel are not luxury items.

These insights were detailed during an intervention on Euronews Romania.

During her intervention on Thursday, September 3, at Digi24, Eugenia Gusilov explained that the fact that the fuel excise tax reduction was absorbed by the market in a single day has nothing to do with the Strait of Hormuz. Instead, the pressure comes from the regional diesel market in the Mediterranean and Black Sea basins.

She noted that we are witnessing a reconfiguration of trade flows over the last two months, as actors who previously supplied the regional market with diesel, such as Russia and Turkey, have turned into buyers. Practically, the price of diesel increases because Russian diesel has disappeared from the regional balance.

On one hand, Russia has lost important refining capacities, leading it to halt diesel exports from July 8 and even look to buy diesel on the market. At the same time, Turkey stopped importing diesel fuel from Russian ports and started purchasing on the free market. When former regional sellers stop delivering and start bidding for the same volumes available on the open market, demand suddenly increases, and the price per ton of diesel goes up for everyone.

Furthermore, Gusilov emphasized that a correct analysis of the price at the pump requires looking at the cost structure of each gas station chain separately, because supply differs radically:

– Rompetrol brings crude oil from Kazakhstan, refines it at Midia Navodari, and distributes it through its own network.
– OMV Petrom refines at Petrobrazi approximately two-thirds of domestic crude oil and one-third of imported crude oil.
– Socar brings diesel from its own STAR refinery in Turkey to supply the roughly 100 stations it operates in Romania, while also engaging in trading activities.
– MOL should theoretically have a lower price at the pump because it refines Russian crude oil, which is significantly cheaper than Brent and arrives via pipelines, thereby bypassing the Black Sea where higher insurance premiums apply.

The excise duty on diesel fuel was cut by 25% starting September 1. This month, price pressure comes primarily from the regional diesel market. September is considered the most complicated month, recording a price peak where a ton of diesel rises to 1,300 – 1,400 dollars, compared to 900 dollars in July.

The explanation relates to the forced reconfiguration of supply chains, as diesel produced by Russian refineries is no longer accessible. Russia stopped exporting diesel fuel on July 8. Previously, Turkey used to buy Russian fuel and export its own diesel to the European Union. Now, Turkish buyers compete with other purchasers for available fuel volumes.

Suspensions related to commercial agreements also arise. When observing four large petrol station chains displaying an identical price down to the decimal point, such as 10.2 lei per liter at the end of August, it is natural for question marks to appear. Real commercial differentiation should be visible rather than perfect alignment. Therefore, such situations must be carefully investigated not only by the National Authority for Consumer Protection, but especially by the Competition Council.

When diesel fuel is brought from further away, such as India or Red Sea ports, transportation costs increase significantly. Added to these are much higher insurance premiums for transport through the Black Sea, where there is a permanent risk of a drone striking an oil tanker. All these elements can explain a variation of about 30 euro cents, roughly 1.5 lei more per liter, but strictly for companies that actually import via these expensive routes.

Consequently, the cost structure must be checked for each individual case to determine who brings diesel fuel from long distances with real costs and who buys it nearby while inflating profit margins beyond measure. These insights were discussed by Eugenia Gusilov with Gabi Mihai on Tuesday, September 1, at B1.ro.

During her intervention on Tuesday, September 1, at Digi24, Eugenia Gusilov discussed the drop in diesel prices below the 10 lei threshold.

She explained that the reduction of 17 bani per liter on the first day of September was strictly the result of the Ministry of Finance's decision to apply the maximum legal reduction of 25% to the excise tax.

She pointed out that the price of diesel dropped below 10 lei at only one station network, specifically Petrom, where it decreased from 10.14 to 9.97 lei. However, she emphasized that this reduction remains fragile and could easily be absorbed by developments in the regional market.

According to the ROEC Director, September remains the most difficult test of the autumn. The regional market is experiencing structural changes in supply flows from the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. Furthermore, strikes that affected Russian refineries have disrupted existing trade chains, and Russia has halted diesel exports since July 8.

She also noted that Turkey previously bought diesel from Russia while selling fuel from its own refineries to Greece or Romania, meaning the Turks now compete directly for available diesel volumes in the region.

All these disturbances have led to a critical point, entering September with the highest price per ton of diesel recorded this year, making September the absolute peak. Market relaxation will only occur once the market settles, and price discounts will follow the stabilization of new commercial routes.

During a discussion about fuels and electricity with Cristi Citre at Digi24, it was pointed out that Romania being the richest country in oil is a myth maintained by nostalgics. Romania produced 2.5 million tons of crude oil per year while consuming 11 million tons. Regarding pump prices, variations depend heavily on taxation, as neighbors like Bulgaria apply lower excise duties, and non-EU countries are not bound by Brussels minimums. Beyond taxes, processing and distribution costs fluctuate between 0.9 and 1.2 euros per liter. On the electricity market, public scenarios of modest 5% to 20% bill increases for autumn and winter might be overly optimistic, given that contracts in force and current market offers point to increases of at least 40%. Furthermore, while Romgaz successfully sold gas-produced electricity for the last quarter of the year, Oltenia Energy Complex faced a failure at its August auction due to market demand for cleaner energy and rigid annual band offers.

During an intervention at Antena 3, energy experts emphasized that to understand future energy prices, one must listen to suppliers who hold signed contracts. While government and association estimates for electricity bill increases ranged between 3% and 20%, the Romania Energy Center (ROEC) noted that upon the expiration of current contracts, new offers could be 30% to 40% higher in certain cases. Regarding the Cernavoda nuclear power plant, restarting both reactors simultaneously has a low chance of around 30%. A more feasible scenario involves restarting one reactor in mid-September and the second towards the end of September or early October. Although recent upstream rainfall in Hungary raised Danube flows, the water takes about 10-12 days to reach the plant and sufficiently raise water levels for cooling needs.

Addressing gas bills during an intervention at Digi24, experts advised the public not to panic. Although Europe enters the cold season with lower underground storage levels, the situation remains manageable. Export disruptions primarily affect Asia, while Europe's deficit of about 20 billion cubic meters can be offset by US liquefied natural gas (LNG). Although Europe must pay higher prices to attract uncontracted American LNG ships competing with Asia, physical supply is not endangered. For Romania, price pressure for households is buffered by the price cap mechanism until spring 2027, supported by domestic production and the upcoming Neptun Deep gas project expected to enter the market in the spring.