Media appearances

Tuesday, July 28, at B1.ro, in dialogue with Gabi Mihai about: – the risk of shortages – the dynamic excise tax adopted yesterday for fuel Romania is free to try this tool as well, if it wants to gain experience with the "dynamic excise" (which is a first for our country). Personally, I think that this formula rather reflects the government's preference to protect its income from the state budget than a real concern to help the drivers of this country. … Why am I saying this? The excise duty on diesel is 2.8 lei/liter. This means that a 5% reduction in excise duty = 14 money, a 10% reduction = 28 money, and the maximum possible reduction is 25% = 70 money. That is, in the best case, we will pay an excise tax of 2.1 lei/liter instead of 2.8 lei/liter (as it is now). And this will have to be calculated and re-evaluated once every 2 weeks, that is, it is more difficult to manage administratively than if it had been a fixed 50% reduction of the excise tax (which would mean – 1.4 lei/liter) without recalculations every 2 weeks. But, even so, it is good that the government adopted at least something in terms of a helpful measure than the option in which it would have done nothing.

Sunday, July 26, on Digi24, talking about the solutions for getting out of the fuel crisis: 1. The legislative initiative (ref to the declaration of the crisis situation) introduced by the former Minister of Energy Bogdan Ivan, on July 22, which contains good provisions, such as the reduction of VAT on fuel during the crisis situation from 21% to 19%. 2. Ukraine's adjustment of the drone attack strategy in the Black Sea, so that oil tankers carrying Kazakh oil are not targeted. There is also an intervention by Washington next to Kyiv with a request in this regard. I hope it will bear fruit. 3. The protection offered by stocks covering 90 days of importation.

Friday, July 24, Digi24, about the unfortunate combination of factors that once again brought gasoline to 9 lei and diesel to 10 lei. How long will the suspension of Kazakh oil exports last? Kazakhstan said it is waiting for the "normalization of conditions" to resume crude oil exports. But what does "normalization of conditions" mean? Ending the war in Ukraine? Or the cessation of drone attacks on energy infrastructure? Or, the drone attacks can continue, just to avoid the port of …Novorosiisk (namely, the terminal where the Kazakh oil leaves)? If until now we have only taken care of the price, now we are entering a stage in which the problem of volume availability is also added.

Thursday, July 23, on Digi24, in dialogue with Valentin Chisoceanu, about the Eurostat statistics that confirm what we knew (that in Romania prices rise too fast and fall too slowly). But most of our discussion was related to the question: what affects us more – Hormuz or Kazakhstan? Answer: both, but more so the story with Kazakhstan. Very importantly, it must be emphasized that Romania imports crude oil (ie crude oil) from Kazakhstan, NOT diesel. … What does Kazakhstan mean for the oil market in Romania? In 2025, Romanian refineries processed 11.4 million tons (Mt), of which: – only 2.5 million tons is Romanian crude oil (ie 22%), – the remaining 8.9 Mt is imported crude oil (78%). Of the nearly 9 million tons of crude oil imported last year, 5.4 million (ie 60%) came from Kazakhstan. So, the addiction is great. What can the state do to lower the price? The state knows what it has to do, but it does NOT want to act. However, it may not have anywhere, if the exports from Kazakhstan do not resume within a reasonable time horizon, and the prices go up much too much.

Wednesday, July 22, at B1.ro, in dialogue with Gabriela Mihai and Adrian Negrescu about the suspension of crude oil exports from Kazakhstan (the oil that came through the CPC pipeline), a situation that also affects Romania. The key question is: for how long does the export stop? The decision (to pause crude oil exports) comes as a precaution (who wants to see their goods burning?), but we cannot exclude any hidden reason (that of not wanting to antagonize its neighbor from the north – Russia, which … asked for help with 50,000 tons of fuel, although normally Russia is the one that exports both crude oil and petroleum products). If exports do not resume within a reasonable time horizon, Romania could be in a situation where it will once again look for emergency solutions (new sources or new routes). Kazahtsan crude oil was itself the alternative solution (variant B) when we had to give up Russian crude oil in 2022, we replaced it mainly with Kazakh crude oil. Now, if the oil from Kazakhstan can no longer reach us, a "breakdown solution to the breakdown solution" must be found (that is, option C). The destruction of the Russian refining base will have a cascade effect on the global crude oil market, but also on the regional diesel market. The problem is deepening especially because there is no prospect of recovery (repair) of the Russian refineries. Who is crazy to invest in expensive repairs, when another drone attack comes tomorrow or next week and destroys again everything that was repaired?

My dialogue on Tuesday, July 21, with Catalin Deacu on "Banii azi" – TVR News, regarding the attack from July 20 to 21 on the ship "Gas Lisbon" that was transporting LPG to the port of Reni in Ukraine. We are in the 5th year of the war, and this one also has a maritime dimension, so we must expect more incidents of this type. The good part is that Romania has taken steps to close the legislative loopholes so that the MApN and the Naval Forces now have a more solid operational base that allows them to act to protect the critical infrastructure in the EEZ. As the Naval Forces will be equipped with more modern capabilities in the next period, we will probably see more proactive reactions in such cases.

At B1 Tv, on July 21, commenting on Morgan Stanley's assessment of the diesel market in Europe. The silence is over. The diesel market is the most exposed (gasoline is not a danger to us) because in parallel with the resumption of military countermeasures in the Strait of Hormuz, we have a suspension of diesel exports from Russia (the 2nd largest exporter of diesel globally). To which we can add the (hopefully temporary) suspension of crude oil exports from Kazakhstan (I said more about this in other interventions, which I will post).

On July 21, at Digi24, about Europe's vulnerability when it comes to diesel. Within the continent, our region (South-Eastern Europe) has a high dependence of the car fleet (especially passenger vehicles, but also heavy transport and agricultural machinery) on diesel. The phenomenon of excessive dieselization is due to fiscal policies that for decades overcharged gasoline, forcing drivers to turn to diesel cars at the expense of gasoline ones. This structural legacy is what makes us more vulnerable today. The second factor is related to the fact that Europe does not cover its diesel needs only from what European refineries produce, so it is dependent on imports. The third factor is related to the unresolved situation in the Strait of Hormuz: Iran says that the strait is closed, and the USA says that it is open. The fourth factor is related to the refining sector in Russia, heavily damaged by the Ukrainian drone attack. As a result, Russia banned the export of diesel fuel until the end of July. Moreover, Russia is looking to import diesel fuel from other countries. All this will complicate the diesel supply equation in the short term in our area.

Sunday, July 19, on Digi24, with a comment on two aspects related to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz: – the situation on the oil market was kept in check from March to July by the use of reserves (what the states removed from the strategic oil reserves), but this is a "false abundance"; – the real prospects for a geopolitical solution to the conflict are weak as long as the same regime remains in power in Tehran, which operates on the instructions left by the ayatollah and essentially continues the same political line.

At Digi24, on the topic of aviation fuel, why Europe is the most vulnerable region, but also when the problems might appear (in the second part of August).